Moderna Executives Just Made Rare Stock Buys – A Bullish Signal?

Moderna Inc. (MRNA:US) is a well-known biotech company that gained massive recognition during the COVID-19 pandemic for developing one of the first mRNA-based vaccines. However, post-pandemic demand has declined, dragging down revenue and share prices. Despite efforts to diversify its pipeline, the stock remains well below its peak. Yet, Moderna still holds a market capitalization of approximately $13.67 billion as of February 2025.

First Insider Buys in Years

In a notable development, two top insiders at Moderna recently made substantial purchases of company stock—an unusual move given that insider buying has been largely absent in recent years. On March 3, 2025, CEO Stéphane Bancel acquired 160,314 shares at $31.21 per share, totaling approximately $5 million. On the same day, Director Paul Sagan purchased 31,620 shares at $31.76 per share, spending around $1 million.

Historically, insider trading at Moderna has been dominated by stock sales, as executives took advantage of the company's massive pandemic-driven rally. These recent purchases break that trend, suggesting that key insiders believe the stock is undervalued and poised for a rebound.

Who Are These Insiders & What Do They Know?

Stéphane Bancel has been Moderna’s CEO since 2011, leading the company from a small biotech startup to a global vaccine powerhouse. His extensive experience in the pharmaceutical industry and deep understanding of Moderna’s pipeline suggest that his purchase could reflect strong confidence in the company's future prospects.

Paul Sagan, a seasoned executive with leadership experience in technology and media, has been a director at Moderna for several years. While not a biotech expert, his continued involvement and recent purchase indicate that he sees long-term value in the company.

Given their positions, both Bancel and Sagan likely have a clearer view of Moderna’s future than the average investor. Their purchases may signal optimism about upcoming developments that could positively impact the company’s trajectory.

Moderna’s Financial Struggles & Recent Challenges

Despite these insider buys, Moderna has been facing a tough financial landscape. The company’s Q4 2024 earnings report revealed a sharp decline in revenue, dropping to $1 billion from $2.8 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. The full-year revenue for 2024 stood at $3.2 billion, down from $6.8 billion in 2023. This decline was primarily due to waning demand for its COVID-19 vaccine and the phasing out of international advance purchase agreements.

Additionally, Moderna posted a net loss of $1.1 billion for Q4 2024, with losses per share at $2.91—wider than analyst expectations. Looking ahead, the company projects 2025 revenue to be between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, falling short of Wall Street’s anticipated $3.26 billion.

Federal Contracts Under Scrutiny

Adding to its woes, Moderna is under review by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) regarding a $590 million contract awarded for the development of a bird flu vaccine. The news of the review sent Moderna’s stock tumbling by 5%, as investors worried about potential funding setbacks. The review is part of a broader assessment of government expenditures on mRNA-based vaccines, making Moderna’s future reliance on federal funding uncertain.

Product Approvals & The Path Forward

On a more positive note, Moderna continues to invest in expanding its product pipeline. In August 2024, the company secured FDA approval for an updated COVID-19 vaccine targeting the KP.2 variant. This new version, branded as Spikevax (2024-2025 formula), is expected to drive some revenue recovery, though it remains uncertain whether demand will match previous levels.

Looking further ahead, Moderna is aiming for up to 10 product approvals by 2027. However, to achieve this goal while managing financial headwinds, the company is planning to cut $1.1 billion in research and development costs by 2027, with $1 billion in savings expected by the end of 2025.

Conclusion: A Turning Point for Moderna?

With its stock struggling and financial outlook uncertain, Moderna finds itself at a critical juncture. However, the recent insider purchases stand out as a rare signal of confidence from those who know the company best. While investors remain cautious given the company’s declining revenues, regulatory scrutiny, and challenging market conditions, insider buying is often considered a strong indicator of future potential. Whether this marks the beginning of a turnaround or just a temporary vote of confidence remains to be seen, but it certainly gives investors something to think about.