Insider Buying at NFI Group: How Executives Anticipated a 50% Stock Surge

In the fast-paced world of stock market investing, insider buying often stands as a key indicator of a company's potential. When top executives put their own money into the stock, it usually reflects strong confidence in the future. One of the most recent and compelling examples of this was at NFI Group Inc. (NFI:CN), where insider buying in early 2024 was followed by a remarkable 50% surge in the company’s stock price.

Let’s explore how NFI’s insiders anticipated positive developments and timed their investments perfectly.

The Context: Early 2024 Challenges

In early 2024, NFI Group, a global leader in electric buses and mass mobility solutions, faced significant headwinds. Like many companies in the automotive and transportation sectors, NFI was grappling with supply chain disruptions, increased production costs, and general market skepticism about the short-term performance of bus manufacturers.

At that time, the stock price was under pressure, and many investors were unsure of how the company would navigate these challenges. However, behind the scenes, something noteworthy was happening—several insiders were buying shares.

Insider Buying Signals Confidence

On March 11, Vice Chairman Colin Robertson made a substantial purchase of 50,000 common shares, totaling 431,545 USD. CEO Paul Soubry executed a strategic move on March 7, acquiring 2,560 common shares, valued at 21,805 USD.

In addition to these leaders, other top insiders, including Chairwoman Kei Wai Ting (Wendy), Vice President Stephen King, and President/Director Brian Keith Dewsnup participated in trades as well.

These actions reflected more than just faith in the company's resilience—they were based on an expectation that NFI’s upcoming milestones and strategic moves would change the narrative around the company’s performance.

Key Announcements Fuel Stock Growth

The first major positive news came in May 2024, when NFI subsidiary New Flyer announced a contract with BC Transit for 33 battery-electric buses. This contract was part of BC Transit's long-term goal to electrify its fleet by 2040. As a leader in electric mobility, NFI’s ability to secure this contract reinforced its position in the zero-emission transportation market, driving investor confidence and boosting the stock price.

Just two months later, in July 2024, NFI's subsidiary Alexander Dennis secured another important deal—an order from Stagecoach for 41 next-generation electric buses to be deployed in London. This not only expanded NFI’s presence in one of the largest public transport markets but also showcased the company’s ability to lead in the electrification of mass transit.

Beyond London and BC Transit, NFI received several other important contracts in 2024, including further orders for Xcelsior CHARGE NG™ battery-electric buses across North America. This reinforced NFI’s standing as a top provider of sustainable transportation solutions and showcased its ability to execute large-scale orders.

The Impact on NFI’s Stock Price

These key developments, along with NFI’s broader push toward sustainable mobility, fueled a significant rally in its stock. Since March, NFI’s stock price increased by over 50%, validating the insider buying activity that took place earlier in the year.

For investors paying attention to insider activity, this was a textbook example of how insider buying can provide early signals about a company’s future performance. Insiders at NFI were clearly confident that the company’s strategic moves would pay off—and they did.

The Lesson: Why Insider Buying Matters

This case study of NFI Group underscores the value of insider buying as a leading indicator. In this instance, insiders not only believed in the company’s long-term potential but also accurately timed their investments to take advantage of the upcoming wave of positive news.

For savvy investors, tracking insider buying—particularly in times of market uncertainty—can provide invaluable insights into where a company is headed. In NFI’s case, those who followed the insiders' lead were rewarded with substantial gains as the stock rallied by 50% in just a few short months.